| 1. Identificação | |
| Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Evento (Conference Proceedings) |
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br |
| Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identificador | x6e6X3pFwXQZ3DUS8rS5/yQTBk |
| Repositório | cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/07.23.17.00 |
| Última Atualização | 2017:08.09.12.45.01 (UTC) marciana |
| Repositório de Metadados | cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/07.23.17.00.11 |
| Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2022:03.21.19.44.45 (UTC) administrator |
| Chave Secundária | INPE-10219-PRE/5740 |
| Chave de Citação | DereczynskiNobr:2003:EvCPSe |
| Título | Evaluation of CPTEC's seasonal ensemble predictions of wet season lover northeast Brazil  |
| Formato | Papel |
| Ano | 2003 |
| Data Secundária | 20030324 |
| Data de Acesso | 18 maio 2024 |
| Tipo Secundário | PRE CI |
| Número de Arquivos | 1 |
| Tamanho | 2565 KiB |
| 2. Contextualização | |
| Autor | 1 Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira 2 Nobre, Carlos Afonso |
| Grupo | 1 CG-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Afiliação | 1 Federal Univ. of Rio De Janerio, Rio de Janeiro, 22290-080, Brazil 2 INPE/CPTEC -Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil |
| Endereço de e-Mail | deicy@cptec.inpe.br |
| Nome do Evento | International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 7. |
| Localização do Evento | Wellington, New Zealand |
| Data | 24-28 Mar |
| Editora (Publisher) | American Meteorological Society |
| Páginas | 151-152 |
| Título do Livro | Proceedings |
| Tipo Terciário | Artigos |
| Histórico (UTC) | 2012-10-21 17:59:27 :: administrator -> Deicy :: 2003 2013-02-20 14:52:30 :: Deicy -> administrator :: 2003 2015-04-15 11:56:38 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2003 2017-08-09 12:45:01 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2003 2022-03-21 19:44:45 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2003 |
| 3. Conteúdo e estrutura | |
| É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz |
| Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido |
| Transferível | 1 |
| Tipo de Versão | publisher |
| Palavras-Chave | Meteorologia |
| Resumo | An evaluation of sources of errors that limit predictability in seasonal ensemble predictions for the Northeast Brazil (NEB) wet season generated by a T062L28 version of the CPTEC/COLA atmospheric general circulation model is presented. The ensemble numerical forecasts comprised 25 members initiated from consecutive analyses one day apart (from 4 to 28 December). During the simulation period (December, January and February) observed global sea surface temperatures (SST) were used as lower boundary conditions. For the forecast period (March, April and May), SST fields were prescribed as persisted February SST anomalies globally. The years 1996-2000 were chosen for this study. It is already known that slowly varying anomalous lower boundary forcings, such as SST anomalies, are more relevant than short timescale fluctuations of the daily weather variations in determining seasonal mean atmospheric states. Therefore, potentially higher predictability is expected for regions where seasonal climate variability can be explained by variations in SST patterns. Northern NEB is one of these regions. There, the weather conditions during the wet season are mostly controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and intensity. However, the region is also influenced by transients such as frontal systems, upper level cyclonic vortices, easterly waves and instabilities lines. In this work we are trying to answer the following questions: (i) can the model predict the statistical characteristics of those transient systems correctly? And, (ii) to what extent are model deficiencies in predicting the statistics of the transient systems vis-à-vis the latitudinal ITCZ migrations source of errors in seasonal precipitation predictions? The results showed that when the simulated outgoing longwave radiation over the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean, representative of the ITCZ, is not well predicted, the model skill for wet season (March-April-May) rainfall over northern NEB is poor. Moreover, the model shows deficiencies to predict the correct amount of rainfall, position and intensity of upper level vortices over NEB, overestimating rainfall. In cases where the model predicts correctly the ITCZ and there are few cases of upper level cyclonic vortices, limit of predictability will be related to the number of frontal systems penetrating into southern NEB. In some cases, the simulation of fewer cold fronts than observations is compensated by simulation of many easterly waves bringing rain from the Atlantic Ocean into the continent. Another important result is that model produces in general fewer cold fronts in comparison to the observed number of such systems reaching southern NEB, but this is compensated by intensification of the low level convergence associated with these frontal systems over southern NEB. After reaching NEB, the simulated frontal systems produce large amounts of precipitation. That, in turn, is followed by an intensified convergence and lower surface pressure. As a result, under this synoptic situation, a new cyclonic center is formed. These low level cyclonic vortices have no counterpart in observations, that is, they are a spurious feature of the model. It travels from north to south, counterclockwise near the Brazilian coast, producing additional rainfall. In sum, by and large the model presents a good skill in predicting precipitation in NEB during its wet season. However, there are situations when that skill is achieved, by means of wrong mechanisms. |
| Área | MET |
| Tipo | PRE |
| Arranjo | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > CGCPT > Evaluation of CPTEC's... |
| Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar |
| Conteúdo da Pasta source | não têm arquivos |
| Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos |
| 4. Condições de acesso e uso | |
| URL dos dados | http://mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br/ibi/x6e6X3pFwXQZ3DUS8rS5/yQTBk |
| URL dos dados zipados | http://mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br/zip/x6e6X3pFwXQZ3DUS8rS5/yQTBk |
| Idioma | en |
| Arquivo Alvo | 10219.pdf |
| Grupo de Usuários | administrator |
| Grupo de Leitores | administrator marciana |
| Visibilidade | shown |
| Detentor da Cópia | SID/SCD |
| Permissão de Leitura | allow from all |
| Permissão de Atualização | não transferida |
| 5. Fontes relacionadas | |
| Unidades Imediatamente Superiores | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3EUPEJL |
| Acervo Hospedeiro | cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 |
| 6. Notas | |
| Campos Vazios | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination doi edition editor electronicmailaddress isbn issn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid organization parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisheraddress resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark url volume |
| 7. Controle da descrição | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| atualizar | |